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Real Estate News Headlines…. Are you as Confused as I am?? November 24, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News.
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Well the newest real estate articles are posted below and once again they can educate and also add to our daily confusion on what the hell is going to happen to the real estate market in the US.

One thing is for certain, if you don’t like the market prognosis today you will only have to wait a couple of hours to have it change to your liking. 🙂

October home sales rise 10.1 pct from September
October home sales up 10.1 percent, beating expectations as tax credit spurs sales

* By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
* On 4:18 pm EST, Monday November 23, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — Home sales surged for the second month in a row in October, climbing to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of an expiring tax credit…  Link to full article

Home prices up slightly in September

Home prices up slightly in September; analysts expect declines as foreclosures rise

  • By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
  • On 11:59 am EST, Tuesday November 24, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — The summer’s trend of rising home prices is ebbing as the traditional home shopping season ends, two reports Tuesday showed… Link to full article

10 Questions on the Volatile Housing Market

James R. Hagerty
Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Lower prices have spurred home sales, but looming foreclosures and high unemployment are clouding the outlook

The U.S. housing market has been in a slump for the past four years. When will it ever end?

In recent years, real estate has proven as jittery and unreliable as any other market.

Link to article and the 10 answered questions

1 in 4 Mortgage Borrowers is Under Water

Posted by David S Morgan

Nearly a quarter of U.S. mortgage holders owe more on their loans than their houses are worth, according to a report today in the Wall Street Journal.

Data from First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif.-based real-estate information company, shows that in the third quarter of 2009 almost 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes.

Link to the full article

Housing Bottom? “Not Even Close,” Barry Ritholtz Says

Posted Nov 24, 2009 02:07pm EST by Aaron Task

A fifth-straight monthly gain for the Case-Shiller Index Tuesday and Monday’s stronger-than-expected existing home sales report is giving renewed hope to the housing bulls.

“Disregard them,” says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ,….

Link to video and article

New US home sales rise 6.2 percent

October new US home sales up 6.2 percent in sign of stability for housing

  • By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
  • On 10:55 am EST, Wednesday November 25, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in more than a year as strong activity in the South offset weakness in the rest of the country.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 from an upwardly revised 405,000 in September. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 410,000….

Link to full article

Arizona second in underwater loans

Phoenix Business Journal – by Jan Buchholz

Arizona has more homeowners who are underwater with their mortgages than any other state, save one.

About 48 percent of homeowners here owe more on their mortgages than the home is worth. That is second only to…

Link to full article

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To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….

 

 

What is a real estate purchaser to believe???? October 21, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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I recently came across 2 separate articles that focused on the future of the real estate market. One was a national publication with grounded statistics while the other article was a local Phoenix publication that also was based on relatively hard numbers.

The funny thing is that both articles screamed the opposite opinion of where the market is going. The Phoenix based article speaks of a recovery and that the real estate slump is over while the national article talks about more pain and how real estate prices are about to go much lower.

My take is that the market will bounce along the bottom for another 36 to 48 months, great deals will be had and some insulated pockets in the Valley will actually see a decline in properties for sale and realize a marginal appreciation in value.

Check out the articles for yourself:

Phoenix-area consultants contend local real estate slump is over
Bizjournals.com – Charlotte,NC,USA
Two Phoenix real estate consultants are claiming the local residential real estate meltdown is over. Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of real …

Housing Prices: Expected to Drop More in the Next Year?Home values are predicted to fall in 342 out of 381 markets in the next year, according to a new forecast. Learn why and find out which cities could buck the trend…

Some interesting news articles over the last week July 31, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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The wild and wonderful world of metro Phoenix real estate.

Is it good? – Yes

Is it bad? – Yes

Is it all over the map? – Yes

The market is definitely not for the faint of heart but when markets are in upheaval  there are opportunities for those who buy smart and have the right time horizon in their investment plan.

Below are a couple of recent news articles that you might find of interest, the comments on the ‘New Law’ article are interesting!

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Michael

Phoenix Existing Home Sales Increases 71 Percent
NuWire Investor – Bellevue,WA,USA
Phoenix real estate appears to be rebounding with a strong increase in existing home sales. Existing home sales have increased for 12 consecutive months now …

New law triggers fear for housing
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
“I got a call from an out-of-state lender that is considering holding off on a foreclosure until after September 30,” said Phoenix real-estate attorney Marc ..

TopTenRealEstateDeals.com Introduces The Top 10 Phoenix Real
PR Web (press release) – Ferndale,WA,USA
According to Amy, “It’s old news that the Phoenix real estate market has been pretty hard hit over the last few years. This has created some incredible …

Has the residential real estate market bottomed out? June 16, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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Now that we are recession battle weary and it seems like forever since we have heard any good economic news many are contemplating the question – are we finally turning the corner? This is the million dollar question and if you don’t like the predictions from one analyst or economist then Google for another and you will have a prediction that is significantly different than the last one you just read.

In any case, one indisputable fact is that we are now hearing more cries from the gallery that we are approaching the bottom of this down real estate market, where even some stats are showing the one off market improving month over month.

See recent article:

ASU-RSI: Beginning of the End or Price Plunge

Published: June 15, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

Sales data from March indicates that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market. click above title link for complete article

I think we are close to the bottom as the supply and demand curves are leveling out and price reductions in most areas have begun to stagnate. We will continue to see depressed prices for properties that have been run down and are in need of a complete rehab so one must compare apples to apples and focus once again on value versus solely on just price per square foot.

Yes I could buy a house down the street at $40 psf versus one four doors down that is listed at $60 psf but the one at $40 needs to be rebuilt inside where the $60 house just needs some minor updating, so if you compare the value the $40 psf house probably needs $40,000+ in rehab work and you still might find more issues down the road with a beat up property so is it really the deal you thought it was?

In many parts of Metro Phoenix and North America for that matter good properties that are priced at market are selling quickly at their asking price, this is a sign that we are bottoming out in some geographical markets and that if we dont move upwards we will perhaps bounce along the bottom for a while.

Here is an interesting article with a country wide geographical view of the market:

Buying and Selling 2009: What It’s Really Like
by Dana Dratch
Monday, June 1, 2009
provided byBankrate

For buyers and sellers, the past few months have been schizophrenic.

In 2009, sellers are battling shrinking home values and a constricting pool of available buyers. Buyers are sensing opportunities on home prices and home mortgages — if they have the credit, job security and ready cash to qualify. click above title link for complete article

The real estate free fall might just be over but what ever you do make sure that you educate yourself before jumping into the real estate pool. There are some great deals for the new homeowners, investors and those that might be looking to move back in after a real estate set back.

Good luck and happy house hunting!

Cheers,

Michael

Chandler Arizona Real Estate Market Showing Substantial Improvement April 7, 2009

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A positive review by David Lorti

Chandler Arizona Real Estate Market Showing

Substantial Improvement

Buyer Demand for Chandler Homes Rising Rapidly

Chandler, Arizona 4/06/2009 04:41 PM GMT (TransWorldNews)

http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=82526&cat=1

Chandler, Arizona’s real estate market is experiencing substantial improvement in residential activity with lower available home inventory and higher home sales.

This improvement is primarily due to increased buyer demand for homes as a result of lower home prices, low interest rates, and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, all of which are spurring interest by buyers to purchase homes.

To understand the changes currently taking place in the Chandler housing market, there are three areas that require review—the number of available Chandler homes for sale, the number of Chandler homes under contract for purchase, and the number of sold Chandler homes.


Available Inventory of Chandler Homes Showing Modest Decline

Available Chandler home inventory has been experiencing a modest decline and is now at a three year low.  The rate of decline is lower when compared to other real estate markets of the Phoenix Metropolitan area where buyer demand is more robust, but Chandler has generally been less impacted by the market downturn than those same communities.

The decline in inventory is largely due to the overall improvement in buyer demand rather than cancellations and expirations of property listings.


Buyer Demand for Chandler Real Estate is Strengthening Rapidly

Buyer demand, as measured by the number of actively marketed Chandler homes currently under contract for purchase in Chandler, is showing impressive improvement.

25.6% of the properties currently for sale in the Chandler real estate market are under contract, a 9% point increase since November 2008.  More striking is that 5 points of that improvement has taken place within the last 30 days.

Put another way, for every 10 homes on the market, there are now 2 ½ buyers vs. 2 buyers a month ago.

Comparing against prior years, Chandler’s performance is surpassing that seen in the 2006-2008 period though still less than that seen in the 2003-2005 period.


As mentioned earlier, buyers are being spurred on by three major factors.  First, Chandler home prices have declined to such an extent that the prices are attracting attention.  Second, interest rates are at historical lows with borrowers attaining loans with as little as a 4-5% interest rate.  Third, “first-time homebuyers” who are eligible receive a $8,000 tax credit for purchasing a home.  This money does not have to be repaid unlike the previous homebuyer tax credit program.

The improvement in buyer demand is working to reduce existing inventory as more buyers are stepping up to purchase Chandler homes.


Sales of Chandler Homes Increasing

Chandler home sales activity is beginning to show greater strength in sales over 2008 trends as the number of homes under contract for purchase rises.  In the last 30 days, sales activity has begun to separate more clearly away from 2008 levels.  It is important to note that 2008 appears as the low point for closed sales activity in Chandler.

Given the pending home sales performance mentioned above, we should expect to see the number of actual closed sales increase over the coming 1-3 months.  Indicators are that Chandler real estate will post stronger numbers than that seen in 2008.


Chandler Foreclosures & Short Sales

Chandler, like many Valley communities, has been beset by foreclosures and short sales which have forced prices down aggressively from market highs.


Valleywide, the number of foreclosures do represent a trouble spot for the Chandler real estate market.  Indeed, the 90-day rolling average for the number of Trustee’s Sale notices issued daily continues to grow with over 300 notices given per day.  As well, the number of actual Trustee’s Sale or foreclosure auction proceedings per day is growing and represents approximately 140 foreclosures daily.  Together, these figures point to an increased number of foreclosed homes entering the marketplace in the near term, potentially driving down pricing for existing homes.


Chandler Real Estate Outlook

Overall, the Chandler real estate market is clearly experiencing improvement.
In the next 1-3 months, we should hope to see additional erosion of available Chandler homes inventory given buyer demand.  Though we could see a steady sloping of pending sales activity as the year progresses, the trend should maintain a higher level than that seen in the last two to three year period.  Actual 2009 Chandler home sales should post better results going forward for Chandler than that seen in 2008.


In summary, Chandler real estate appears to be shoring up and laying a more solid foundation for further improvement resulting in reduced inventory, higher pending sales activity, and higher home sales.  Though more foreclosures loom in the marketplace, the outlook for the Chandler real estate market is more promising for the moment.  Time will tell.


About David Lorti


David Lorti is a professional Realtor for Thompson’s Realty in the Phoenix Real Estate Market market. He holds a MBA and Certified Negotiation Expert designation and his insights have been quoted in numerous news outlets. His website, LortiHomesArizona.com, and blog, LortiHomesBlog.com, offer additional market insights on Ahwatukee Real Estate, Chandler Real Estate, Gilbert Real Estate, and all parts of the Phoenix area.