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National numbers released and December wasn’t pretty January 25, 2010

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The December numbers were released for home sales and the numbers were a little unsettling. A 17% drop in sales from the previous month, this is the largest monthly decline in the last 40 years.

In the Metro Phoenix area I am seeing properties listed at 1/3 off their peak sale prices in 05/06. The questions are how low can prices go and when will we hit the bottom?

December home sales down nearly 17 percent
Home sales plunge nearly 17 percent in December after tax credit deadline extended

By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer , On Monday January 25, 2010, 12:32 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of previously occupied homes took the largest monthly drop in more than 40 years last month, sinking more dramatically than expected after lawmakers gave buyers additional time to use a tax credit.
The report reflects a sharp drop in demand after buyers stopped scrambling to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homeowners. It had been due to expire on Nov. 30. But Congress extended the deadline until April 30 and expanded it with a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who move.
“It’s ‘exit stage left’ for first-time homebuyers,” wrote Guy LeBas, an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott.
December’s sales fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million, from an unchanged …….

January numbers will be interesting.

Michael

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Real Estate News Headlines…. Are you as Confused as I am?? November 24, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News.
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Well the newest real estate articles are posted below and once again they can educate and also add to our daily confusion on what the hell is going to happen to the real estate market in the US.

One thing is for certain, if you don’t like the market prognosis today you will only have to wait a couple of hours to have it change to your liking. 🙂

October home sales rise 10.1 pct from September
October home sales up 10.1 percent, beating expectations as tax credit spurs sales

* By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
* On 4:18 pm EST, Monday November 23, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — Home sales surged for the second month in a row in October, climbing to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of an expiring tax credit…  Link to full article

Home prices up slightly in September

Home prices up slightly in September; analysts expect declines as foreclosures rise

  • By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
  • On 11:59 am EST, Tuesday November 24, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — The summer’s trend of rising home prices is ebbing as the traditional home shopping season ends, two reports Tuesday showed… Link to full article

10 Questions on the Volatile Housing Market

James R. Hagerty
Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Lower prices have spurred home sales, but looming foreclosures and high unemployment are clouding the outlook

The U.S. housing market has been in a slump for the past four years. When will it ever end?

In recent years, real estate has proven as jittery and unreliable as any other market.

Link to article and the 10 answered questions

1 in 4 Mortgage Borrowers is Under Water

Posted by David S Morgan

Nearly a quarter of U.S. mortgage holders owe more on their loans than their houses are worth, according to a report today in the Wall Street Journal.

Data from First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif.-based real-estate information company, shows that in the third quarter of 2009 almost 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes.

Link to the full article

Housing Bottom? “Not Even Close,” Barry Ritholtz Says

Posted Nov 24, 2009 02:07pm EST by Aaron Task

A fifth-straight monthly gain for the Case-Shiller Index Tuesday and Monday’s stronger-than-expected existing home sales report is giving renewed hope to the housing bulls.

“Disregard them,” says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ,….

Link to video and article

New US home sales rise 6.2 percent

October new US home sales up 6.2 percent in sign of stability for housing

  • By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
  • On 10:55 am EST, Wednesday November 25, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in more than a year as strong activity in the South offset weakness in the rest of the country.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 from an upwardly revised 405,000 in September. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 410,000….

Link to full article

Arizona second in underwater loans

Phoenix Business Journal – by Jan Buchholz

Arizona has more homeowners who are underwater with their mortgages than any other state, save one.

About 48 percent of homeowners here owe more on their mortgages than the home is worth. That is second only to…

Link to full article

When will the market hit bottom??? November 16, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The elusive question everyone is asking, ‘When will we hit the bottom of the real estate market?’ has no definitive answer but the tells point to the fact that we are still moving towards the bottom an not there yet.

Here is a decent video with Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital who sides with the real estate bears and puts the bottom in perspective with some economic fundamentals to consider when making our own guess.

Video and article

 

To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….