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There is only so much beach front property available… March 9, 2010

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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It has been while since I have ranted but I am having the same inane conversation with too many people lately and it has now allowed me to now see backwards due to all of the eye rolling I have done.

Yes the US resort property market (California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida & Hawaii) is still depressed.

Yes there are still great deals available and yes there will be a bounce along the bottom for another period of time (12 to 36 months) but the house that your friend/associate/partner/or friend of a friend bought out in the deep suburbs (middle of Podunk nowhere) 12 months ago from some smooth talking know it all Realtor has NOT increased in value due to brilliant property purchasing prowess…. The deal was probably OK as it is hard not to buy at the bottom 25% of the market over the last 24 months, but when a property does not come up on your GPS or on Google maps then you know it will not rebound in value quickly and will dramatically under perform centrally located real estate.

As I published in a previous Blog, there are 3 main variables that effect the value of property; 1. Location, 2. Features and 3. Local Amenities. A $200,000 home in the deep suburbs will cost you over 1 million+ in the center of a high profile area. Those numbers can now be adjusted to $75,000 and $450,000+. If it takes you 15 minutes to find a store that is still in business to buy a paper or carton of milk then guess what, you have purchased in the middle of nowhere…..

Real estate has been and always be about location, location, location and beware of anyone that tells you differently as they will be trying to sell you a time share in a central Florida swamp or prime piece of desert property 2 hours from Sky Harbor airport.

The market still has some amazing deals but make sure you conduct in-depth due diligence, hire or utilize educated and well seasoned professionals and educate yourself as much as possible, as any purchase, be it a primary residence or a vacation property will be a decision that requires a substantial investment of time and capital.

One final word of caution, the trustee sales are becoming crowded auctions and prices in some areas of the nation are being pushed up to just below retail by overzealous buyers and agents. Paying overinflated prices for properties which are, due to the nature of trustee auctions, completely Caveat Emptor is a fools folly. Make sure you either become a local real estate expert or use a service which is the best in the local market, otherwise you could… no make that WILL be over paying for property which could be a black hole where you will be shoveling all of your money into…

Best of luck in your real estate endeavors,

Michael

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When will the market hit bottom??? November 16, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The elusive question everyone is asking, ‘When will we hit the bottom of the real estate market?’ has no definitive answer but the tells point to the fact that we are still moving towards the bottom an not there yet.

Here is a decent video with Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital who sides with the real estate bears and puts the bottom in perspective with some economic fundamentals to consider when making our own guess.

Video and article

 

To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….

 

 

What is a real estate purchaser to believe???? October 21, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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I recently came across 2 separate articles that focused on the future of the real estate market. One was a national publication with grounded statistics while the other article was a local Phoenix publication that also was based on relatively hard numbers.

The funny thing is that both articles screamed the opposite opinion of where the market is going. The Phoenix based article speaks of a recovery and that the real estate slump is over while the national article talks about more pain and how real estate prices are about to go much lower.

My take is that the market will bounce along the bottom for another 36 to 48 months, great deals will be had and some insulated pockets in the Valley will actually see a decline in properties for sale and realize a marginal appreciation in value.

Check out the articles for yourself:

Phoenix-area consultants contend local real estate slump is over
Bizjournals.com – Charlotte,NC,USA
Two Phoenix real estate consultants are claiming the local residential real estate meltdown is over. Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of real …

Housing Prices: Expected to Drop More in the Next Year?Home values are predicted to fall in 342 out of 381 markets in the next year, according to a new forecast. Learn why and find out which cities could buck the trend…

Recent AZ real estate news articles August 17, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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More news articles on the metro Phoenix real estate market and beyond:

Home Prices: There’s No Quick Recovery Ahead

by Brett Arends
Monday, August 17, 2009

provided by

wsjlogo.gif
So, is our long national nightmare over? Has the housing market finally hit bottom?

There has been some muted — albeit exhausted — cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before we break out the champagne……

Valley home building resumes as new builders take over
AZ Central.com – AZ,USA
Phoenix real-estate analyst Jim Belfiore of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting said companies are taking full advantage of recent moves by lenders to sell off …

Foreclosure bill is now tied to state’s budget
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
Former Arizona State Land Commissioner Mark Winkleman joined Mortgages Ltd., the Phoenix real-estate lender founded by Scott Coles. Winkleman, a real-estate …

Fidelity Releases Metro Phoenix Real Estate Trends and Predictions
Business Wire (press release) – San Francisco,CA,USA
This information is released in partnership with The Cromford Report, a daily report tracking the residential real estate trends of the Metropolitan Phoenix …

Foreclosures Forecast to Increase

Foreclosure Investors Rely on Innovative Rental Strategies

New appliances. Upgraded bathrooms. Plasma televisions. Granite countertops. High-end fixtures. These are some of the perks foreclosure landlords are offering their tenants. With the market for home …

Some interesting news articles over the last week July 31, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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The wild and wonderful world of metro Phoenix real estate.

Is it good? – Yes

Is it bad? – Yes

Is it all over the map? – Yes

The market is definitely not for the faint of heart but when markets are in upheaval  there are opportunities for those who buy smart and have the right time horizon in their investment plan.

Below are a couple of recent news articles that you might find of interest, the comments on the ‘New Law’ article are interesting!

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Michael

Phoenix Existing Home Sales Increases 71 Percent
NuWire Investor – Bellevue,WA,USA
Phoenix real estate appears to be rebounding with a strong increase in existing home sales. Existing home sales have increased for 12 consecutive months now …

New law triggers fear for housing
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
“I got a call from an out-of-state lender that is considering holding off on a foreclosure until after September 30,” said Phoenix real-estate attorney Marc ..

TopTenRealEstateDeals.com Introduces The Top 10 Phoenix Real
PR Web (press release) – Ferndale,WA,USA
According to Amy, “It’s old news that the Phoenix real estate market has been pretty hard hit over the last few years. This has created some incredible …

Real Estate is all about self education June 24, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.
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Regardless of how many personal and professional advisors one has nothing replaces self education, especially when dealing with vacation or investment property purchases.

In past posts I have listed many real estate resources that one can put into their arsenal and frankly you can never have too many available. I recently came across a couple of others that seem to be a little slicker than previous real estate resource sites.

Zillow is of course one of the higher profiled comp sites and they do reflect pricing reality but you cannot bank on the values, it is a great start to your research. Trulia is another major real estate search portal.

A new site called Movoto has just entered into the Arizona market and seems a little more indepth than Zillow but time will tell, again another good research site.

Of course there is the old standby Realtor.com or Realtor.ca for Canada which are the official sites of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc. and the Canadian Real Estate Association respectively.

Do not confuse Realtor.com and Realtor.ca with mls.com which is an independently owned and operated Real Estate Advertising Service Company site.

Some other real estate sites I have stumbled across are:

http://www.cyberhomes.com/

http://www.foreclosuredeals.com/

Arizona Neighborhoods.com

Home Finder.com

These are only a few of hundreds of sites but at least it is a start in your education process.

Happy house hunting!

Cheers,

Michael

PS

Here is an interesting article outlining a new program for buyers:

New program yet to help buyers land homes
CNN International – USA
Connolly has been in the Phoenix real estate market for about nine years and has seen the disastrous real estate downturn up close. …

Has the residential real estate market bottomed out? June 16, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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Now that we are recession battle weary and it seems like forever since we have heard any good economic news many are contemplating the question – are we finally turning the corner? This is the million dollar question and if you don’t like the predictions from one analyst or economist then Google for another and you will have a prediction that is significantly different than the last one you just read.

In any case, one indisputable fact is that we are now hearing more cries from the gallery that we are approaching the bottom of this down real estate market, where even some stats are showing the one off market improving month over month.

See recent article:

ASU-RSI: Beginning of the End or Price Plunge

Published: June 15, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

Sales data from March indicates that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market. click above title link for complete article

I think we are close to the bottom as the supply and demand curves are leveling out and price reductions in most areas have begun to stagnate. We will continue to see depressed prices for properties that have been run down and are in need of a complete rehab so one must compare apples to apples and focus once again on value versus solely on just price per square foot.

Yes I could buy a house down the street at $40 psf versus one four doors down that is listed at $60 psf but the one at $40 needs to be rebuilt inside where the $60 house just needs some minor updating, so if you compare the value the $40 psf house probably needs $40,000+ in rehab work and you still might find more issues down the road with a beat up property so is it really the deal you thought it was?

In many parts of Metro Phoenix and North America for that matter good properties that are priced at market are selling quickly at their asking price, this is a sign that we are bottoming out in some geographical markets and that if we dont move upwards we will perhaps bounce along the bottom for a while.

Here is an interesting article with a country wide geographical view of the market:

Buying and Selling 2009: What It’s Really Like
by Dana Dratch
Monday, June 1, 2009
provided byBankrate

For buyers and sellers, the past few months have been schizophrenic.

In 2009, sellers are battling shrinking home values and a constricting pool of available buyers. Buyers are sensing opportunities on home prices and home mortgages — if they have the credit, job security and ready cash to qualify. click above title link for complete article

The real estate free fall might just be over but what ever you do make sure that you educate yourself before jumping into the real estate pool. There are some great deals for the new homeowners, investors and those that might be looking to move back in after a real estate set back.

Good luck and happy house hunting!

Cheers,

Michael

Metro Phoenix Real Estate – Is the glass half full or half empty? March 31, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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Like most people I always hear about those that buy low and sell high but have rarely experience that phenomena myself. The Metro Phoenix real estate market holds a lot of promise for the average investor / homeowner to change their luck.

Metro Phoenix real estate has and is going through a tumultuous time, depending upon the survey, study or report, the Phoenix real estate market is horrible and continuing down the path to utter despair with no end in sight. See a recent Forbes report on the 10 Best and Worst US Housing Markets, we made it to number 2! Most would see the glass as half empty if not total dry, like being out in the Phoenix summer 115 degree heat. But it is a dry heat and as it happens every year in Phoenix the temperatures will moderate and with open arms welcome the shivering masses that are escaping the bitter cold from elsewhere in North America.  Thus I see this as the glass being half full.

Tell me where can you now purchase a principle residence, investment property or vacation home at these prices (2003 levels or lower) and live in an area where everyone wants to either visit to escape the cold and golf, retire to, move to because of the climate and lifestyle or beat the losing investment habit and buy low by getting in at the bottom and sell high in the future while enjoying a respite from the cold.

Thus is the Metro Phoenix real estate glass not securely half full? Add the global aging demographic and reports like the following Forbes report highlighting the top 10 cities where Americans are relocating, Phoenix is #4.

Last month in Phoenix I golfed with 5 different couples that were in Phoenix to get out of the cold and begin the journey of looking to relocate/retire in a more comfortable part of the world.

Thus saddle up to the Phoenix real estate bar and order a big, cool half full glass of opportunity! 🙂

Cheers,

Michael

Metro Phoenix and Chandler Arizona Research July 3, 2008

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, golf.
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Well I have reviewed some of the do and dont’s of joint ownership and what to look out for in a vacation home so now i can drill down into Metro Phoenix areas of interest and specifically Chandler. From a Calgarians perspective, Arizona is a great location for a vacation home as it not only has great weather and recreational activities, it is a short 3 hour flight away.

We searched and viewed homes all over the nicer areas of Metro Phoenix and decided on the Ocotillo area of Chandler. We found the prices great and much more affordable than Scottsdale, we loved the abundance of water and lushness of growth, unparalleled shopping, a little more quiet than other Phoenix areas and the golf course there is 27 holes of challenge with water on 24 or so holes that quickly swallows up golf balls.

There are thousands of resource site on the web that are a google search away but here are a couple of the information sites I have used to familiarize myself with Chandler, the Metro Phoenix area and real estate in the area:

http://www.visitphoenix.com/visitor/index.cfm

http://www.azcentral.com/

http://phoenix.gov/DISCOVER/index.html

.

Chandler AZ
http://www.visitchandler.com/

20 minutes south of the airport

  1. Growing vibrant city with a higher end demographic mix
  2. Wonderful recreational community
  3. Easy access to all parts of Arizona

Ocotillo Golfhttp://www.ocotillogolf.com/

Scottsdale / Paradise Valley http://www.scottsdalecvb.com

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Real Estate Research

The best place to browse listings are:

www.realtor.com best to use the map search tool so that you can drill down to areas or,

www.zillow.com a neat tool but harder to navigate and not as much pertinent data
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/ Craigslist is a great site to get familiar with property and you can use key words to narrow down locations.

.

Golf

Depends on where they are staying and what they want to pay but here is a quick summary of golf… with over 200 courses in the Valley this list below only scratches the surface and I have only played about 25 courses so far…..

Best value and one of the best courses is TPC Champions course $49 for non residents if they walk – 7 days a week, tips are not set up but they will let you play them as long as you are a low handicap golfer, if not it will beat you up from back there, easy walk and always in great TPC shape, call 7 days in advance to make weekend tee times and if you dont walk they charge $85 x 2 for a cart on top of the $49 so walk the course.

Southern Dunes in Maricopa, one of the best courses in the valley, 7600 yards from the tips

Whirlwind, 36 great holes

Ocotillo, 27 holes and ranked in the top 5 in the Valley consistently

Gold Canyon, Dinosaur course, spectacular views and great track on the east side of the valley

All these are winners, http://www.troongolfaz.com/index.php

Top 10 Metro Phoenix courses listed by Arizonagolfer http://www.arizonagolfer.net/

To book times for courses other than TPC use http://www.golfnow.com/phoenix The prices get cheaper closer to the day you want to book as the course pros use this site to blow out unused tee times. Can save over 50% on tee times.

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Finally some general information sites:

Phoenix Arizona relocation guide | Phoenix overview

City of Phoenix, Arizona, Official Municipal Web site

Phoenix Arizona CVB Travel Center : Hotels, Resorts & Golf in

Arizona travel and vacation guide from the Arizona Office of Tourism

Arizona Local News – Phoenix Arizona News – azcentral.com

In the next week we will be meeting with a number of groups from the Phoenix real estate community to put together some exciting aquistion business models together, if you have any interest in participating let me know or any questions on any of the recent Blogs.

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Michael