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To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….

 

 

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