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Video introduction to vacation home joint ownership May 4, 2010

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News, Uncategorized.
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Here is a quick introduction video and a PowerPoint on what vacation home joint ownership is and some of the perils and pitfalls you need to be aware of.

Enjoy but unfortunately I have a face for radio….. 🙂

2010 looks to be an interesting real estate year for Phoenix January 19, 2010

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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After 19 days into 2010 I have noticed a couple of disturbing trends coming about. Or exciting trends depending on which side of the real estate fence you are on, the buying real estate 🙂 or selling real estate side :(.

Keep in mind that all of the below is unscientific and we will have to wait for the official numbers from the real estate boards to quantify my observations.

Firstly, I am subscribed to a number of automatic new listing and REO feeds that are sent to bme by email daily, I have noticed that the quantity of homes and the number of emails I am receiving daily is growing dramatically. The listing count seems to be increasing at a higher rate than I have ever seen before and the number of bank owned properties or REO’s listings is also growing. Has the dam burst for the lenders and they are now releasing the growing inventory they had shelved in 2009?

We played golf and bumped into a gentleman who knew of a person who’s job was to post foreclosure notices on homes, he stated that this person had a 160 notices backlogged on his desk, is this a sign of a future increase in inventory?

Prices appear to be dropping. I am following a couple of Metro Phoenix areas for activity and a few homes we have had our eye on, and in the last 30 days we have seen asking prices start to drop as inventory increases. These drops in asking prices have been substantial, especially for some higher profile condo complexes. Asking prices for homes in nice, stable, white collar neighborhoods are 40 to 50% off what they sold for in 2005.

Finally the last point in my unscientific analysis of the Metro Phoenix real estate market is that I have noticed a growing percentage of new listing notifications that are not new homes to the market but homes that have come back on the market after the purchaser has backed out or the short sale was not approved by the lending institution.

Is this just a minor blip in the Phoenix real estate market recovery or is it the next wave of downward value readjustment some of the previous articles I posted made mention of?

Before you decide maybe take a look at the next piece of uncomfortable news in the following link:

JANUARY 19, 2010

Souring Mortgages, Weak Market Force FHA to Walk a Tightrope


David Stevens bought his first home almost 25 years ago, paying just 3% down with a loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration. “I had no money in the bank,” he says. “If it weren’t for the FHA, I wouldn’t have gotten that home.”

Now, as FHA commissioner, Mr. Stevens has to decide how many others to let through that door. Souring FHA-insured mortgages are threatening the agency’s finances. Congress is pressuring him to tighten the easy-money standards that once helped people like him, and he is expected to announce revisions as early as this week……..

It looks like the glass is either half full or half empty depending on which side of the Phoenix real estate fence you are on, hope you are on the right side. 🙂



To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….



What the hell was I thinking? November 2, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.
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Rarely do I post personal ramblings but for some reason I am possessed to do so.

Last Wednesday we decided to take the day off of real estate and golf and go for a hike in the mountains.

We chose to go hiking on a wonderful trail in Gold Canyon Weaver’s Needle Loop (Peralta Trailhead) that one of our partners recommended.

The hike has a 4 rating and is not too difficult as we both do some type of exercise for and hour plus everyday.

Well after about 20 minutes into the hike (straight up) we zigged instead of zagged on the trail and ended up deep in the middle of a tangled web of cactus and pointy bushes that cut the hell out of your legs…. now instead of doing the reasonable thing and head back we ventured on and up, after 45 minutes of mountain climbing we determined that we were screwed and not in a good way and continued on as we could no longer go back as some of the terrain we crossed was unpassable going in the other direction.

Oh by the way, did I mention that I was wearing shorts…….

Arizona has a unique trait, everything that grows out of the ground will draw blood if brushed against and even the soft looking friendly bushes that you decide to trundle through on one of these tramps up a mountain will take layers of skin (and sometimes flesh) off your body…

Soon we decided to hack our way through the pointy and scratchy bushes to a very high point on the wrong side of the canyon (we actually had no choice to go in this direction, see earlier note).

Now reaching the top I have determined that while bleeding profusely from a couple of hundred deep cactus scratches from my legs that I will NOT be beat by this mountain adventure!

We finally are able to determine that we are now on the wrong side of the canyon which is painfully a long way from what we think might be the actual trail on the other side.

So with fearless determination we set forth to cross the valley chasm in my blood soaked socks and red stained runners to reach the nirvana we call the “real trail” on the other side.

After about another 20 minutes of rock climbing over 10 foot drops into a lush spread of cacti and other pointy bushes and bush whacking with the golf wedge I brought along to fend off snakes and mountain lions we actually reach the real trail on the other side of the canyon!!!!!

We then proceeded to continue up for another hour but it was so boring as there were no prickly things you had to push through that made you bleed profusely. Thus we decided to head back down and go to the top another day when I wont have a squishy sound coming from my wet runners, blood is an amazingly loud and sticky substance!

The trail is great and we will be back, we look forward to reaching the top the next time we are in Phoenix but make sure you keep right on the red rocks that start moving further up the mountain and not go left along the white wash that looks like the trail.  Remember Red GOOD, White BAD!!!!

In retrospect, I could have played an enjoyable round of golf, sat and had cocktails on the patio and had a lovely day….once again what the hell was I thinking????

Michael, the slowly healing adventurer.

A brilliant parody on sales and vendor client engagements August 21, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Business Development, Integration and Technology, Uncategorized.
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Putting my management consultant hat on for a second, here is a wonderful video on the issues the vendor community has, especially in IT, with their prospects and customers. This is not really an exaggeration as I have seen far worse.