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Phoenix Trustee Auctions – make sure you are ready to play with the big boys December 11, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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I did a post some time ago about auctions with a link to a great article that explained the process titled Buyer Beware,  but there is a new article out that goes into the details of how these auctions work. The only problem with the article is that the average non professional investor will read only one thing, how much one professional made in a quick one week flip.

This article can be found here and is titled House Flipping Makes a Comeback. Great article and make sure to look at the slide show but and it is a big but… these people that work the trustee sales are professionals with years of experience and teams in place. They have the cash or the access to cash to close in the required 24 hour period, they have done their research on the properties they bid and purchase via drive bys and walk arounds and even may have had access to the property to assess the repairs it will need. Another issue in the property/ investment flip game is that everyone is now getting into it and the competition for great deals is much greater than it use to be 2 or 3 years ago.

On a  $75,000 to $150,000 flip you will need at least $20,000 net profit on the purchase to turn around a $10,000 net profit on the sale. That is if you have a good Realtor and the all of the market factors of the home are aligned. Properties can drop in value by 25% overnight, (if comparable sale properties in a couple of block radius drop their prices due to being banked owned or going into foreclosure this will affect your ability to sell at your planned price) I have experienced it first hand thus you need to be well healed and have all the necessary resources at hand.

Properties of great value might produce greater margins but will also have greater costs associated in the transactions and are tougher to resell, more first time buyers than those looking for a $250,000 family home. Then when you get into the luxury market you can steal properties but good luck trying to sell it unless you have it on the market substantially below current market prices like the example in the last article.

On a positive investor note it is anticipated that there will be a new wave of properties entering the Phoenix market in the spring, not good if you purchased a home and will be trying to slog it off in the next couple of months but good if you are waiting to enter the market in the early spring.

In any case if you decide to venture down the path of playing the trustee auctions then best of luck in swimming with the sharks. 🙂

Have a great weekend wherever you are!

Michael

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When will the market hit bottom??? November 16, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The elusive question everyone is asking, ‘When will we hit the bottom of the real estate market?’ has no definitive answer but the tells point to the fact that we are still moving towards the bottom an not there yet.

Here is a decent video with Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital who sides with the real estate bears and puts the bottom in perspective with some economic fundamentals to consider when making our own guess.

Video and article

 

To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.

The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..

We have hit bottom but ….

Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.

House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.

We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.

Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????

Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.

I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.

Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues

Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….

 

 

AZ Real Estate News Articles November 5, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The first article reviews some of the signs of a false bottom for the AZ real estate market and the second might be an indication of how the foreclosure supply might see an increase when underwater owners just throw in the towel and walk away. Is the recent Vally real estate good news a dead cat bounce phenomena? Time will tell and 2010 will definitely be interesting.

Unseasonably high home sales in October linked to tax rebate
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA

Phoenix real-estate agent and property manager Melinda Murphy attributed the relatively … Phoenix real-estate analyst Jim Belfiore of Belfiore Real Estate …

UA prof to some homeowners: Consider walking away
AZ Central.com – AZ,USA
She’s the keynote at Lambda Alpha International’s Phoenix real-estate conference on Tuesday. The event starts at 7:30 am at the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown …

More walk away from homes, mortgages
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY
When Sharon Sakson was laid off recently from her job as a television writer and producer, she burned through her savings to pay the $2,400 monthly mortgage on her home. But she soon decided it didn’t make sense: Her home was worth thousands less than the mortgage she carried on it.

 

Fannie Mae seeks $15 BLN in US aid after 3Q loss
By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fannie Mae is asking for an additional $15 billion in government aid after posting another big loss in the third quarter as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps rising.

The government-controlled company continued….

What the hell was I thinking? November 2, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.
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Rarely do I post personal ramblings but for some reason I am possessed to do so.

Last Wednesday we decided to take the day off of real estate and golf and go for a hike in the mountains.

We chose to go hiking on a wonderful trail in Gold Canyon Weaver’s Needle Loop (Peralta Trailhead) that one of our partners recommended.

The hike has a 4 rating and is not too difficult as we both do some type of exercise for and hour plus everyday.

Well after about 20 minutes into the hike (straight up) we zigged instead of zagged on the trail and ended up deep in the middle of a tangled web of cactus and pointy bushes that cut the hell out of your legs…. now instead of doing the reasonable thing and head back we ventured on and up, after 45 minutes of mountain climbing we determined that we were screwed and not in a good way and continued on as we could no longer go back as some of the terrain we crossed was unpassable going in the other direction.

Oh by the way, did I mention that I was wearing shorts…….

Arizona has a unique trait, everything that grows out of the ground will draw blood if brushed against and even the soft looking friendly bushes that you decide to trundle through on one of these tramps up a mountain will take layers of skin (and sometimes flesh) off your body…

Soon we decided to hack our way through the pointy and scratchy bushes to a very high point on the wrong side of the canyon (we actually had no choice to go in this direction, see earlier note).

Now reaching the top I have determined that while bleeding profusely from a couple of hundred deep cactus scratches from my legs that I will NOT be beat by this mountain adventure!

We finally are able to determine that we are now on the wrong side of the canyon which is painfully a long way from what we think might be the actual trail on the other side.

So with fearless determination we set forth to cross the valley chasm in my blood soaked socks and red stained runners to reach the nirvana we call the “real trail” on the other side.

After about another 20 minutes of rock climbing over 10 foot drops into a lush spread of cacti and other pointy bushes and bush whacking with the golf wedge I brought along to fend off snakes and mountain lions we actually reach the real trail on the other side of the canyon!!!!!

We then proceeded to continue up for another hour but it was so boring as there were no prickly things you had to push through that made you bleed profusely. Thus we decided to head back down and go to the top another day when I wont have a squishy sound coming from my wet runners, blood is an amazingly loud and sticky substance!

The trail is great and we will be back, we look forward to reaching the top the next time we are in Phoenix but make sure you keep right on the red rocks that start moving further up the mountain and not go left along the white wash that looks like the trail.  Remember Red GOOD, White BAD!!!!

In retrospect, I could have played an enjoyable round of golf, sat and had cocktails on the patio and had a lovely day….once again what the hell was I thinking????

Michael, the slowly healing adventurer.

What is a real estate purchaser to believe???? October 21, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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I recently came across 2 separate articles that focused on the future of the real estate market. One was a national publication with grounded statistics while the other article was a local Phoenix publication that also was based on relatively hard numbers.

The funny thing is that both articles screamed the opposite opinion of where the market is going. The Phoenix based article speaks of a recovery and that the real estate slump is over while the national article talks about more pain and how real estate prices are about to go much lower.

My take is that the market will bounce along the bottom for another 36 to 48 months, great deals will be had and some insulated pockets in the Valley will actually see a decline in properties for sale and realize a marginal appreciation in value.

Check out the articles for yourself:

Phoenix-area consultants contend local real estate slump is over
Bizjournals.com – Charlotte,NC,USA
Two Phoenix real estate consultants are claiming the local residential real estate meltdown is over. Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of real …

Housing Prices: Expected to Drop More in the Next Year?Home values are predicted to fall in 342 out of 381 markets in the next year, according to a new forecast. Learn why and find out which cities could buck the trend…

A good summary on US real estate opportunities October 19, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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The Close : October 19, 2009 : U.S. Opportunity Knocking?

Link to the BNN video

U.S. real estate prices continue to fall and the Canadian dollar continues to rise. With the Bank of Canada and the Fed expected to keep rates low, at least until mid-2010, is now a good time for Canadians to invest in U.S. housing? BNN speaks to Terry Ritchie, certified financial planner, Transition Financial Advisors, for a look at the opportunities and pitfalls of Canadians buying U.S. residential real estate.

Recent AZ real estate news articles August 17, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, AZ Real Estate News.
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More news articles on the metro Phoenix real estate market and beyond:

Home Prices: There’s No Quick Recovery Ahead

by Brett Arends
Monday, August 17, 2009

provided by

wsjlogo.gif
So, is our long national nightmare over? Has the housing market finally hit bottom?

There has been some muted — albeit exhausted — cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before we break out the champagne……

Valley home building resumes as new builders take over
AZ Central.com – AZ,USA
Phoenix real-estate analyst Jim Belfiore of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting said companies are taking full advantage of recent moves by lenders to sell off …

Foreclosure bill is now tied to state’s budget
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
Former Arizona State Land Commissioner Mark Winkleman joined Mortgages Ltd., the Phoenix real-estate lender founded by Scott Coles. Winkleman, a real-estate …

Fidelity Releases Metro Phoenix Real Estate Trends and Predictions
Business Wire (press release) – San Francisco,CA,USA
This information is released in partnership with The Cromford Report, a daily report tracking the residential real estate trends of the Metropolitan Phoenix …

Foreclosures Forecast to Increase

Foreclosure Investors Rely on Innovative Rental Strategies

New appliances. Upgraded bathrooms. Plasma televisions. Granite countertops. High-end fixtures. These are some of the perks foreclosure landlords are offering their tenants. With the market for home …

Some interesting news articles over the last week July 31, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.
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The wild and wonderful world of metro Phoenix real estate.

Is it good? – Yes

Is it bad? – Yes

Is it all over the map? – Yes

The market is definitely not for the faint of heart but when markets are in upheaval  there are opportunities for those who buy smart and have the right time horizon in their investment plan.

Below are a couple of recent news articles that you might find of interest, the comments on the ‘New Law’ article are interesting!

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Michael

Phoenix Existing Home Sales Increases 71 Percent
NuWire Investor – Bellevue,WA,USA
Phoenix real estate appears to be rebounding with a strong increase in existing home sales. Existing home sales have increased for 12 consecutive months now …

New law triggers fear for housing
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
“I got a call from an out-of-state lender that is considering holding off on a foreclosure until after September 30,” said Phoenix real-estate attorney Marc ..

TopTenRealEstateDeals.com Introduces The Top 10 Phoenix Real
PR Web (press release) – Ferndale,WA,USA
According to Amy, “It’s old news that the Phoenix real estate market has been pretty hard hit over the last few years. This has created some incredible …

Real Estate is all about self education June 24, 2009

Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.
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Regardless of how many personal and professional advisors one has nothing replaces self education, especially when dealing with vacation or investment property purchases.

In past posts I have listed many real estate resources that one can put into their arsenal and frankly you can never have too many available. I recently came across a couple of others that seem to be a little slicker than previous real estate resource sites.

Zillow is of course one of the higher profiled comp sites and they do reflect pricing reality but you cannot bank on the values, it is a great start to your research. Trulia is another major real estate search portal.

A new site called Movoto has just entered into the Arizona market and seems a little more indepth than Zillow but time will tell, again another good research site.

Of course there is the old standby Realtor.com or Realtor.ca for Canada which are the official sites of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc. and the Canadian Real Estate Association respectively.

Do not confuse Realtor.com and Realtor.ca with mls.com which is an independently owned and operated Real Estate Advertising Service Company site.

Some other real estate sites I have stumbled across are:

http://www.cyberhomes.com/

http://www.foreclosuredeals.com/

Arizona Neighborhoods.com

Home Finder.com

These are only a few of hundreds of sites but at least it is a start in your education process.

Happy house hunting!

Cheers,

Michael

PS

Here is an interesting article outlining a new program for buyers:

New program yet to help buyers land homes
CNN International – USA
Connolly has been in the Phoenix real estate market for about nine years and has seen the disastrous real estate downturn up close. …