To be a real estate analyst….. November 13, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News, Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate research, foreclosures, real estate opportunity, good news real estate, positive real estate news, Michael Kuhbock, REO properties, real estate recovery
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To be an analyst it todays market means that you would never be wrong… all you need in your predictions is the word ‘but’.
The market has stabilized but … The market is up over last (choose your date) but … Recovery is just around the corner but …..
We have hit bottom but ….
Bottom line is the Valley housing market has a long way to go before it is in a ‘real’ recovery phase that shows sustainable positive numbers and real upward trends across all classes of homes and all areas of the Valley. We are close to the bottom and will bounce along it now until the economic recovery takes hold. When will that happen? Your guess is as valid and as good as anyone elses as it is a crap shoot now.
House resale values in some market segments still have a way to fall, some analysts are calling for another 24% + drop, some market segments have stabilized and some small pockets in the Valley are even seeing an uptick in value. But … make sure you compare apples to apples, something that is not always done.
We are even seeing the new home construction now compete with resale in the same areas as builders have to keep their businesses afloat and need to move product to do so, deals are to be had if you have the kahoonas to risk investing with a developer that might not be around after you have put up half the money and your dream home is only 1/3 completed. Make sure you work with a stable developer that has a long history in the Valley and a well sold development, there are many out there but caveat emptor.
Foreclosure properties are still a very BIG wild card, how many are sitting on the desks of the lenders not yet processed, how many will be coming on to the market in early 2010 once the economy tightens a little more and the next wave hits, how many investors will be walking away from portfolios of properties that will then go into the foreclosure mill?????
Below is a decent but very vanilla overview on the market, an interesting read at least.
I think my next post might rant about REO properties a little more but until then have a great weekend.
Phoenix Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery, but Still Has Issues
Published: November 12, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey
t’s Indian Summer in the Phoenix real estate market: Like a replay of the traditional high sales months, resale activity increased in October — from 9,070 sales in September to 9,955. But although the level of activity appears strong, it’s not necessarily a sign of recovery, as foreclosures continue…….
AZ Real Estate News Articles November 5, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News, Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, phoenix real estate, foreclosures, real estate opportunity, real estate investments, good news real estate, fannie mae, freddie mac, underwater real estate, REO properties
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The first article reviews some of the signs of a false bottom for the AZ real estate market and the second might be an indication of how the foreclosure supply might see an increase when underwater owners just throw in the towel and walk away. Is the recent Vally real estate good news a dead cat bounce phenomena? Time will tell and 2010 will definitely be interesting.
Unseasonably high home sales in October linked to tax rebate
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
Phoenix real-estate agent and property manager Melinda Murphy attributed the relatively … Phoenix real-estate analyst Jim Belfiore of Belfiore Real Estate …
UA prof to some homeowners: Consider walking away
AZ Central.com – AZ,USA
She’s the keynote at Lambda Alpha International’s Phoenix real-estate conference on Tuesday. The event starts at 7:30 am at the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown …
More walk away from homes, mortgages
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY
When Sharon Sakson was laid off recently from her job as a television writer and producer, she burned through her savings to pay the $2,400 monthly mortgage on her home. But she soon decided it didn’t make sense: Her home was worth thousands less than the mortgage she carried on it.
By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fannie Mae is asking for an additional $15 billion in government aid after posting another big loss in the third quarter as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps rising.
The government-controlled company continued….
What the hell was I thinking? November 2, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.Tags: arizona hiking trails, golf versus hiking in arizona, hiking adventures, kuhbock, Michael Kuhbock, peralta trailhead
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Rarely do I post personal ramblings but for some reason I am possessed to do so.
Last Wednesday we decided to take the day off of real estate and golf and go for a hike in the mountains.
We chose to go hiking on a wonderful trail in Gold Canyon Weaver’s Needle Loop (Peralta Trailhead) that one of our partners recommended.
The hike has a 4 rating and is not too difficult as we both do some type of exercise for and hour plus everyday.
Well after about 20 minutes into the hike (straight up) we zigged instead of zagged on the trail and ended up deep in the middle of a tangled web of cactus and pointy bushes that cut the hell out of your legs…. now instead of doing the reasonable thing and head back we ventured on and up, after 45 minutes of mountain climbing we determined that we were screwed and not in a good way and continued on as we could no longer go back as some of the terrain we crossed was unpassable going in the other direction.
Oh by the way, did I mention that I was wearing shorts…….
Arizona has a unique trait, everything that grows out of the ground will draw blood if brushed against and even the soft looking friendly bushes that you decide to trundle through on one of these tramps up a mountain will take layers of skin (and sometimes flesh) off your body…
Soon we decided to hack our way through the pointy and scratchy bushes to a very high point on the wrong side of the canyon (we actually had no choice to go in this direction, see earlier note).
Now reaching the top I have determined that while bleeding profusely from a couple of hundred deep cactus scratches from my legs that I will NOT be beat by this mountain adventure!
We finally are able to determine that we are now on the wrong side of the canyon which is painfully a long way from what we think might be the actual trail on the other side.
So with fearless determination we set forth to cross the valley chasm in my blood soaked socks and red stained runners to reach the nirvana we call the “real trail” on the other side.
After about another 20 minutes of rock climbing over 10 foot drops into a lush spread of cacti and other pointy bushes and bush whacking with the golf wedge I brought along to fend off snakes and mountain lions we actually reach the real trail on the other side of the canyon!!!!!
We then proceeded to continue up for another hour but it was so boring as there were no prickly things you had to push through that made you bleed profusely. Thus we decided to head back down and go to the top another day when I wont have a squishy sound coming from my wet runners, blood is an amazingly loud and sticky substance!
The trail is great and we will be back, we look forward to reaching the top the next time we are in Phoenix but make sure you keep right on the red rocks that start moving further up the mountain and not go left along the white wash that looks like the trail. Remember Red GOOD, White BAD!!!!
In retrospect, I could have played an enjoyable round of golf, sat and had cocktails on the patio and had a lovely day….once again what the hell was I thinking????
Michael, the slowly healing adventurer.
What is a real estate purchaser to believe???? October 21, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News, Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, foreclosures, good news real estate, phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate research, phoenix vacation homes, positive real estate news, real estate, real estate investments, real estate opportunity, real estate resources, vacation home strategies
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I recently came across 2 separate articles that focused on the future of the real estate market. One was a national publication with grounded statistics while the other article was a local Phoenix publication that also was based on relatively hard numbers.
The funny thing is that both articles screamed the opposite opinion of where the market is going. The Phoenix based article speaks of a recovery and that the real estate slump is over while the national article talks about more pain and how real estate prices are about to go much lower.
My take is that the market will bounce along the bottom for another 36 to 48 months, great deals will be had and some insulated pockets in the Valley will actually see a decline in properties for sale and realize a marginal appreciation in value.
Check out the articles for yourself:
Phoenix-area consultants contend local real estate slump is over
Bizjournals.com – Charlotte,NC,USA
Two Phoenix real estate consultants are claiming the local residential real estate meltdown is over. Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of real …
A good summary on US real estate opportunities October 19, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News, Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: arizona real estate, Arizona Vacation Property, phoenix real estate, phoenix vacation homes, real estate investments, real estate opportunity
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The Close : October 19, 2009 : U.S. Opportunity Knocking?
Link to the BNN video
U.S. real estate prices continue to fall and the Canadian dollar continues to rise. With the Bank of Canada and the Fed expected to keep rates low, at least until mid-2010, is now a good time for Canadians to invest in U.S. housing? BNN speaks to Terry Ritchie, certified financial planner, Transition Financial Advisors, for a look at the opportunities and pitfalls of Canadians buying U.S. residential real estate.
Recent AZ real estate news articles August 17, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in AZ Real Estate News, Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, foreclosures, good news real estate, kuhbock, phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate research, real estate, real estate resources
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More news articles on the metro Phoenix real estate market and beyond:
Home Prices: There’s No Quick Recovery Ahead
Monday, August 17, 2009
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So, is our long national nightmare over? Has the housing market finally hit bottom?
There has been some muted — albeit exhausted — cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before we break out the champagne……
Valley home building resumes as new builders take over
AZ Central.com – AZ,USA
Phoenix real-estate analyst Jim Belfiore of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting said companies are taking full advantage of recent moves by lenders to sell off …
Foreclosure bill is now tied to state’s budget
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
Former Arizona State Land Commissioner Mark Winkleman joined Mortgages Ltd., the Phoenix real-estate lender founded by Scott Coles. Winkleman, a real-estate …
Fidelity Releases Metro Phoenix Real Estate Trends and Predictions
Business Wire (press release) – San Francisco,CA,USA
This information is released in partnership with The Cromford Report, a daily report tracking the residential real estate trends of the Metropolitan Phoenix …
Foreclosures Forecast to Increase
Foreclosure Investors Rely on Innovative Rental Strategies
New appliances. Upgraded bathrooms. Plasma televisions. Granite countertops. High-end fixtures. These are some of the perks foreclosure landlords are offering their tenants. With the market for home …
Some interesting news articles over the last week July 31, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, foreclosures, good news real estate, phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate research, phoenix vacation homes, positive real estate news, real estate investments, real estate opportunity, real estate resources, vacation home strategies, vacation homes
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The wild and wonderful world of metro Phoenix real estate.
Is it good? – Yes
Is it bad? – Yes
Is it all over the map? – Yes
The market is definitely not for the faint of heart but when markets are in upheaval there are opportunities for those who buy smart and have the right time horizon in their investment plan.
Below are a couple of recent news articles that you might find of interest, the comments on the ‘New Law’ article are interesting!
Have a great weekend!
Cheers,
Michael
Phoenix Existing Home Sales Increases 71 Percent
NuWire Investor – Bellevue,WA,USA
Phoenix real estate appears to be rebounding with a strong increase in existing home sales. Existing home sales have increased for 12 consecutive months now …
New law triggers fear for housing
Arizona Republic – Phoenix,AZ,USA
“I got a call from an out-of-state lender that is considering holding off on a foreclosure until after September 30,” said Phoenix real-estate attorney Marc ..
TopTenRealEstateDeals.com Introduces The Top 10 Phoenix Real …
PR Web (press release) – Ferndale,WA,USA
According to Amy, “It’s old news that the Phoenix real estate market has been pretty hard hit over the last few years. This has created some incredible …
Real Estate is all about self education June 24, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property, Uncategorized.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, home auctions, kuhbock, Phoenix real estate research, phoenix vacation homes, real estate education, real estate opportunity, real estate resources, research, trustee sale, vacation home strategies, vacation homes
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Regardless of how many personal and professional advisors one has nothing replaces self education, especially when dealing with vacation or investment property purchases.
In past posts I have listed many real estate resources that one can put into their arsenal and frankly you can never have too many available. I recently came across a couple of others that seem to be a little slicker than previous real estate resource sites.
Zillow is of course one of the higher profiled comp sites and they do reflect pricing reality but you cannot bank on the values, it is a great start to your research. Trulia is another major real estate search portal.
A new site called Movoto has just entered into the Arizona market and seems a little more indepth than Zillow but time will tell, again another good research site.
Of course there is the old standby Realtor.com or Realtor.ca for Canada which are the official sites of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc. and the Canadian Real Estate Association respectively.
Do not confuse Realtor.com and Realtor.ca with mls.com which is an independently owned and operated Real Estate Advertising Service Company site.
Some other real estate sites I have stumbled across are:
http://www.cyberhomes.com/
http://www.foreclosuredeals.com/
These are only a few of hundreds of sites but at least it is a start in your education process.
Happy house hunting!
Cheers,
Michael
PS
Here is an interesting article outlining a new program for buyers:
New program yet to help buyers land homes
CNN International – USA
Connolly has been in the Phoenix real estate market for about nine years and has seen the disastrous real estate downturn up close. …
Has the residential real estate market bottomed out? June 16, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, foreclosures, good news real estate, home auctions, Phoenix real estate research, phoenix vacation homes, positive real estate news, real estate investments, vacation home strategies
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Now that we are recession battle weary and it seems like forever since we have heard any good economic news many are contemplating the question – are we finally turning the corner? This is the million dollar question and if you don’t like the predictions from one analyst or economist then Google for another and you will have a prediction that is significantly different than the last one you just read.
In any case, one indisputable fact is that we are now hearing more cries from the gallery that we are approaching the bottom of this down real estate market, where even some stats are showing the one off market improving month over month.
See recent article:
ASU-RSI: Beginning of the End or Price Plunge
Published: June 15, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey
Sales data from March indicates that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market. click above title link for complete article
I think we are close to the bottom as the supply and demand curves are leveling out and price reductions in most areas have begun to stagnate. We will continue to see depressed prices for properties that have been run down and are in need of a complete rehab so one must compare apples to apples and focus once again on value versus solely on just price per square foot.
Yes I could buy a house down the street at $40 psf versus one four doors down that is listed at $60 psf but the one at $40 needs to be rebuilt inside where the $60 house just needs some minor updating, so if you compare the value the $40 psf house probably needs $40,000+ in rehab work and you still might find more issues down the road with a beat up property so is it really the deal you thought it was?
In many parts of Metro Phoenix and North America for that matter good properties that are priced at market are selling quickly at their asking price, this is a sign that we are bottoming out in some geographical markets and that if we dont move upwards we will perhaps bounce along the bottom for a while.
Here is an interesting article with a country wide geographical view of the market:
For buyers and sellers, the past few months have been schizophrenic.
In 2009, sellers are battling shrinking home values and a constricting pool of available buyers. Buyers are sensing opportunities on home prices and home mortgages — if they have the credit, job security and ready cash to qualify. click above title link for complete article
The real estate free fall might just be over but what ever you do make sure that you educate yourself before jumping into the real estate pool. There are some great deals for the new homeowners, investors and those that might be looking to move back in after a real estate set back.
Good luck and happy house hunting!
Cheers,
Michael
Chandler Arizona Real Estate Market Showing Substantial Improvement April 7, 2009
Posted by mkuhbock in Arizona Vacation Property.Tags: Arizona Vacation Property, chandler arizona, good news real estate, kuhbock, positive real estate news, real estate, real estate investments, trustee sale, vacation home strategies
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A positive review by David Lorti -
Chandler Arizona Real Estate Market Showing
Substantial Improvement
Buyer Demand for Chandler Homes Rising Rapidly
Chandler, Arizona 4/06/2009 04:41 PM GMT (TransWorldNews)
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=82526&cat=1
Chandler, Arizona’s real estate market is experiencing substantial improvement in residential activity with lower available home inventory and higher home sales.
This improvement is primarily due to increased buyer demand for homes as a result of lower home prices, low interest rates, and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, all of which are spurring interest by buyers to purchase homes.
To understand the changes currently taking place in the Chandler housing market, there are three areas that require review—the number of available Chandler homes for sale, the number of Chandler homes under contract for purchase, and the number of sold Chandler homes.
Available Inventory of Chandler Homes Showing Modest Decline
Available Chandler home inventory has been experiencing a modest decline and is now at a three year low. The rate of decline is lower when compared to other real estate markets of the Phoenix Metropolitan area where buyer demand is more robust, but Chandler has generally been less impacted by the market downturn than those same communities.
The decline in inventory is largely due to the overall improvement in buyer demand rather than cancellations and expirations of property listings.
Buyer Demand for Chandler Real Estate is Strengthening Rapidly
Buyer demand, as measured by the number of actively marketed Chandler homes currently under contract for purchase in Chandler, is showing impressive improvement.
25.6% of the properties currently for sale in the Chandler real estate market are under contract, a 9% point increase since November 2008. More striking is that 5 points of that improvement has taken place within the last 30 days.
Put another way, for every 10 homes on the market, there are now 2 ½ buyers vs. 2 buyers a month ago.
Comparing against prior years, Chandler’s performance is surpassing that seen in the 2006-2008 period though still less than that seen in the 2003-2005 period.
As mentioned earlier, buyers are being spurred on by three major factors. First, Chandler home prices have declined to such an extent that the prices are attracting attention. Second, interest rates are at historical lows with borrowers attaining loans with as little as a 4-5% interest rate. Third, “first-time homebuyers” who are eligible receive a $8,000 tax credit for purchasing a home. This money does not have to be repaid unlike the previous homebuyer tax credit program.
The improvement in buyer demand is working to reduce existing inventory as more buyers are stepping up to purchase Chandler homes.
Sales of Chandler Homes Increasing
Chandler home sales activity is beginning to show greater strength in sales over 2008 trends as the number of homes under contract for purchase rises. In the last 30 days, sales activity has begun to separate more clearly away from 2008 levels. It is important to note that 2008 appears as the low point for closed sales activity in Chandler.
Given the pending home sales performance mentioned above, we should expect to see the number of actual closed sales increase over the coming 1-3 months. Indicators are that Chandler real estate will post stronger numbers than that seen in 2008.
Chandler Foreclosures & Short Sales
Chandler, like many Valley communities, has been beset by foreclosures and short sales which have forced prices down aggressively from market highs.
Valleywide, the number of foreclosures do represent a trouble spot for the Chandler real estate market. Indeed, the 90-day rolling average for the number of Trustee’s Sale notices issued daily continues to grow with over 300 notices given per day. As well, the number of actual Trustee’s Sale or foreclosure auction proceedings per day is growing and represents approximately 140 foreclosures daily. Together, these figures point to an increased number of foreclosed homes entering the marketplace in the near term, potentially driving down pricing for existing homes.
Chandler Real Estate Outlook
Overall, the Chandler real estate market is clearly experiencing improvement.
In the next 1-3 months, we should hope to see additional erosion of available Chandler homes inventory given buyer demand. Though we could see a steady sloping of pending sales activity as the year progresses, the trend should maintain a higher level than that seen in the last two to three year period. Actual 2009 Chandler home sales should post better results going forward for Chandler than that seen in 2008.
In summary, Chandler real estate appears to be shoring up and laying a more solid foundation for further improvement resulting in reduced inventory, higher pending sales activity, and higher home sales. Though more foreclosures loom in the marketplace, the outlook for the Chandler real estate market is more promising for the moment. Time will tell.
About David Lorti
David Lorti is a professional Realtor for Thompson’s Realty in the Phoenix Real Estate Market market. He holds a MBA and Certified Negotiation Expert designation and his insights have been quoted in numerous news outlets. His website, LortiHomesArizona.com, and blog, LortiHomesBlog.com, offer additional market insights on Ahwatukee Real Estate, Chandler Real Estate, Gilbert Real Estate, and all parts of the Phoenix area.


